Ottawa market insights · Fall 2026
I contributed local commentary to RE/MAX Canada’s Ottawa fall housing outlook, published October 7, 2026. Here is a concise overview of the report’s key findings, followed by practical considerations for your next move.
The figures, with the right comparison period
The accompanying RE/MAX data table compares January 1–July 31, 2025 with January 1–July 31, 2026. These are not full-year results or September-only figures.
Average residential sale price: $715,905 → $699,346, down 2.3%.
Sales: 7,732 → 7,166, down 7.3%.
Listings recorded during the period: 15,426 → 15,562, up approximately 0.9%.
The data table’s Ottawa outlook projects a 0.5% decline in the full-year average price and a 2% decline in sales versus 2025. The city article’s FAQ gives a 1–3% sales-decline range. These are forecasts, separate from the observed January–July comparisons.
Source: RE/MAX Fall 2026 data table. Listings recorded over a period are different from the number of homes actively available on a particular date.
A market that varies by property and location
The report describes balanced conditions leaning toward buyers. It identifies well-kept central detached homes as relatively resilient, with greater pressure affecting condos, townhomes, rural properties and parts of the suburbs.
For a seller in Kanata or Stittsville, the useful question is which homes a buyer would compare with yours. Review recent nearby sales alongside competing listings, then consider layout, upkeep, parking, lot characteristics and location. A citywide price movement is not a valuation of your own home.
For a rural or waterfront sale in Rideau Lakes or Frontenac, build the comparison around the property’s actual use. Year-round access, services, shoreline characteristics and the condition of the buildings deserve attention before a broad market headline is applied to the asking price.
Buyer confidence and the compromises people weigh
Economic uncertainty is the report’s main explanation for first-time-buyer hesitation. It describes more deliberate shopping and resistance to compromised condition, renovation needs or a lengthy commute without a convincing price advantage.
Before viewing homes, separate your non-negotiables from preferences. A workable commute, manageable upkeep and enough space for your household may matter more than a finish that can be changed later. Compare the purchase with the work and time it would require, rather than considering the asking price alone.
Sellers can make that comparison easier by presenting the home clearly. Gather available maintenance records, identify completed improvements accurately and address presentation issues that distract from the property’s strengths.
New construction, rebates and resale competition
My published commentary discussed increased interest in new homes, particularly among buyers already positioned to purchase, and competition from builder incentives. It also highlighted larger detached new builds in suburban and satellite communities.
Market observations and rebate eligibility need to be kept separate. The CRA’s first-time home buyers’ GST/HST rebate guidance sets out buyer and property conditions. Being a move-up buyer does not by itself establish eligibility for a first-time-buyer rebate.
If you are comparing a builder’s offer with resale, ask for a written breakdown of the price, included upgrades, applicable taxes, any assumed rebate assignment and closing adjustments. Confirm eligibility, relevant dates, payment timing and closing procedures with your lawyer and the builder before treating an advertised saving as part of your budget.
The foreign-buyer ban: market commentary versus rules
My contribution characterized the ban’s local effect on affordability and new construction as limited.
That observation is separate from whether a particular purchase is permitted. CMHC’s guidance describes the extension to January 1, 2027, the property areas covered and exceptions. Certain non-Canadian-controlled corporations are also covered, so purchasing through a company is not an automatic solution.
Anyone affected should have their lawyer confirm the buyer’s status, property location and any applicable exception before making a commitment. Rules and dates should be checked again at the time of the proposed transaction.
Planning your next step in Ottawa and Eastern Ontario
Use the report to frame questions, then investigate the part of the market that relates to your plans. Buyers can prepare a focused shortlist and compare alternatives consistently. Sellers can review the evidence behind their price and presentation before launching.
My home buying resources and home selling resources are useful starting points.
Read the full original RE/MAX Ottawa outlook →
Original report: RE/MAX Canada, October 7, 2026, written by Lydia McNutt with commentary from Joel Marshall. This article summarizes the report and adds original local guidance. Policy sources checked October 23, 2026. Forecasts are opinions, not guarantees of future results.
If you would like to discuss how these considerations relate to your neighbourhood or property, get in touch with Joel.
Joel Marshall · Marshall & Company
RE/MAX Boardwalk Realty
613-816-0394 · joel@marshallandco.ca
